I found this article published on Scientific American's website. The article compares
the rate of the drop in cost per KWH for photovoltaic power generation to the
way computing power has increased exponentially.
The article is titled: "Smaller, Cheaper, Faster:
Does Moore's Law Apply to Solar Cells?" by Ramez Naam, posted
3-16-2011. Here is the link:
(I should clarify that the article was posted as a “guest blog,” which
is “Commentary invited by editors of Scientific American.”)
As Austin Energy is starting a review process of its Energy Generation plan that goes to 2020, this article could be relevant to its projections of future solar costs. The author does conclude that the cost is dropping exponentially. In fact, solar is now priced at about 5 cents (solar utility) or about 11 cents (rooftop) so it is even ahead of this author's projections!
Here is an except--the last two paragraphs of the article.
"We should always be careful of extrapolating trends out, of course. Natural processes have limits. Phenomena that look exponential eventually level off or become linear at a certain point. Yet physicists and engineers in the solar world are optimistic about their roadmaps for the coming decade. The cheapest solar modules, not yet on the market, have manufacturing costs under $1 per watt, making them contenders – when they reach the market – for breaking the 12 cents per Kwh mark.
The exponential trend in solar watts per dollar has been going on for at least 31 years now. If it continues for another 8-10, which looks extremely likely, we’ll have a power source which is as cheap as coal for electricity, with virtually no carbon emissions. If it continues for 20 years, which is also well within the realm of scientific and technical possibility, then we’ll have a green power source which is half the price of coal for electricity."
"We should always be careful of extrapolating trends out, of course. Natural processes have limits. Phenomena that look exponential eventually level off or become linear at a certain point. Yet physicists and engineers in the solar world are optimistic about their roadmaps for the coming decade. The cheapest solar modules, not yet on the market, have manufacturing costs under $1 per watt, making them contenders – when they reach the market – for breaking the 12 cents per Kwh mark.
The exponential trend in solar watts per dollar has been going on for at least 31 years now. If it continues for another 8-10, which looks extremely likely, we’ll have a power source which is as cheap as coal for electricity, with virtually no carbon emissions. If it continues for 20 years, which is also well within the realm of scientific and technical possibility, then we’ll have a green power source which is half the price of coal for electricity."
